Ukraine Displacement Data: IDP Estimates [IOM DTM]

Between October 22 and December 19, 2024, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) carried out Round 19 of the General Population Survey (GPS), which offers a highly representative assessment of internal displacement in Ukraine. The data in this report, commissioned by IOM, was gathered by 64 enumerators from Multicultural Insights through screener phone-based interviews involving 40,002 randomly selected respondents, alongside follow-up interviews with 1,445 internally displaced persons (IDPs), 1,200 returnees, and 1,800 non-displaced. These interviews were conducted using the computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) method and a random digit dial (RDD) approach.

This dataset, commissioned by IOM, was gathered by 61 enumerators from Multicultural Insights through screener phone-based interviews involving 40,002 randomly selected respondents, alongside follow-up interviews with 1,421 internally displaced persons (IDPs), 1,185 returnees, and 1,804 residents. These interviews were conducted using the computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) method and a random digit dial (RDD) approach.

Between 13 July and 12 August 2024, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) conducted Round 17 of the General Population Survey (GPS), a highly representative assessment of internal displacement in Ukraine. The data presented in this report was commissioned by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and collected by 51 enumerators employed by Multicultural Insights through screener phone-based interviews with 40,000 randomly selected respondents and follow-up interviews with 1,488 IDPs, 1,188 returnees, and 1,800 residents, using the computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) method, and a random digit dial (RDD) approach.

IOM estimates that 3,548,000 de facto IDPs and 4,734,000 returnees reside in Ukraine. The main IDP hosting oblasts are Dnipropetrovska (14%) and Kharkivska (12%) Oblasts. The highest proportion are from Donetska Oblast (22%). The largest share of intra-oblast displacement was identified in Zaporizka (91%) and Kharkivska (85%) Oblasts.

Between 27 November and 27 December 2023, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) conducted Round 15 of the General Population Survey (GPS), a highly representative assessment of internal displacement in Ukraine. Fifty data collection experts conducted the assessment screener phone-based interviews with 20,000 randomly selected respondents and follow-up interviews with 1,517 IDPs, 1,541 returnees, and 2,002 residents, using the Computer-Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) methodology and a Random Digit Dial (RDD) approach.

Almost half of the total IDP population identified in R14, amounting to 3,674,000 people, originated from just two oblasts: Donetska (24%) and Kharkivska (22%). Remarkably, Kharkivska Oblast remains the oblast with the most significant internal displacement in the country. As shown in the Sankey diagram, Donetska Oblast is the main oblast of origin for IDPs, with resulting displacement spreading across several other oblasts. Conversely, the primary oblast of displacement is Dnipropetrovska Oblast, which receives IDPs from various oblasts, particularly neighboring ones. Kyiv city and Kyivska Oblast also register a substantial number of IDPs, in line with trends observed in previous rounds. This phenomenon can likely be attributed to the perceived better security conditions and the availability of job opportunities in these areas. Lastly, it is worth noting that the top five oblasts hosting IDPs are the same ones with the highest percentage of returnees among the total returnees estimated in R14.

As of 25 May 2023, IOM estimates that 5.1 million people are internally displaced within Ukraine. Of the total, fifty per cent of all IDPs are concentrated in just five oblasts in Ukraine, with the largest estimated de-facto presence in Kharkivska and Dnipropetrovska oblasts (689,000 and 625,000 estimated IDPs, respectively).

Among all IDPs, 7 per cent (around 353,000 people) had previously been displaced outside Ukraine before returning to the country but remaining in displacement. More than half of all IDPs (60%) reported having been displaced for one year or longer. Round 13 brings previously unavailable insights in the sphere of durable solutions to displacement. IOM is now able to estimate that 745,000 IDPs in Ukraine seek integration in their current location as a durable solution (15% of IDPs nation-wide, with data available per oblast), or that 3.3M IDPs see return as their durable solution of choice (so called projected return caseload), while 142,000 IDPs are looking to resettle in another location as a durable solution.

In Round 13, IOM has also deployed a set of questions that provide a preliminary assessment of IDP progress against the Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC) Durable Solutions criteria within the Ukrainian context. These questions cover vital aspects such as safety and security, living standards, livelihood opportunities, access to documentation, participation in public affairs, and family reunification. Besides concerns with safety, the inability to participate in public affairs and to cover basic expenses seem to be of highest concern in terms of preventing the achievement of integration as a durable solution among IDPs on the integration pathway in Ukraine, as of June 2023.

Between 16 and 23 January, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) conducted the twelfth round of a rapid representative assessment of the general population in Ukraine to gather insights into internal displacement and mobility flows, and to assess local needs. The general population survey was constructed through a random-digit-dial (RDD) approach, and 2,000 unique and anonymous respondents aged 18 and over were interviewed using the computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) method. The estimates rely on the UNFPA population data for Ukraine, agreed upon as the common population baseline by the humanitarian community. Those currently outside Ukraine were not interviewed. In addition to this General Population Survey, data on recorded IDP presence at hromada level in Ukraine are available from IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix – Baseline Assessment (Round 20, HDX)

Between 25 November and 5 December, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) conducted the eleventh round of a rapid representative assessment of the general population in Ukraine to gather insights into internal displacement and mobility flows, and to assess local needs. This general population survey serves as a preliminary source to identify areas with high humanitarian needs and to inform the targeting of response aiming to assist the war affected population. The geographical scope of the assessment covers the entire territory of Ukraine, all five macro regions (East, North, Centre, South, and the city of Kyiv), with the exception of the Crimean peninsula. The general population survey was constructed through a random digit dial (RDD) approach, and 2,002 unique and anonymous respondents aged 18 and over were interviewed using the computer assisted telephone interview (CATI) method. The estimates rely on the UNFPA population data for Ukraine, agreed upon as the common population baseline by the humanitarian community. Those currently outside Ukraine were not interviewed. For further notes on method and limitations, including IOM’s definition of internally displaced persons used for the purpose of this assessment, see page 16. In addition to this General Population Survey, data on recorded IDP presence at hromada level in Ukraine are available from IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix Baseline Assessment (Round 17, HDX, November 25, 2022, HDX, registration required).

As of October 27th, IOM estimates 6.5M IDPs are displaced across Ukraine. This represents a slight increase compared to 6.2M as of the end of September. Among these, 450,000 have been newly displaced within the last 30 days. Most new displacements took place from locations in the East (280,000), only 23,000 are estimated to have been displaced from Kyiv city within this time frame.

IDP estimates from the International Organization for Migration (IOM), Ukraine International Displacement Report, Round 9, 26 September 2022.

Between 17 and 23 August the International Organization for Migration (IOM) conducted the eighth round of a rapid representative assessment of the general population in Ukraine to gather insights into internal displacement and mobility flows, and to assess local needs. This general population survey serves as a preliminary source to identify areas with high humanitarian needs and to inform the targeting of response aiming to assist the war affected population. The geographical scope of the assessment covers the entire territory of Ukraine, all five macro regions (East, North, Centre, South, and the city of Kyiv), with the exception of the Crimean peninsula. The general population survey was constructed through a random digit dial (RDD) approach, and 2,001 unique and anonymous respondents aged 18 and over were interviewed using the computer assisted telephone interview (CATI) method. The estimates rely on the UNFPA population data for Ukraine, agreed upon as the common population baseline by the humanitarian community. Those currently outside Ukraine were not interviewed. For further notes on method and limitations, including IOM’s definition of internally displaced persons used for the purpose of this assessment, see page 12 In addition to this General Population Survey, data on recorded IDP presence at hromada level in Ukraine are available from IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix Baseline Assessment (Round 10, August 26, 2022, HDX, registration required).

IDP estimates from the International Organization for Migration (IOM), Ukraine International Displacement Report, Round 7, July 2022.

IDP estimates from the International Organization for Migration (IOM), Ukraine International Displacement Report, Round 6, June 2022.

IDP estimates from the fifth round of a rapid representative assessment of the general population in Ukraine to gather insights into internal displacement and mobility flows, and to assess local needs.

IDP estimates from the fourth round of a rapid representative assessment of the general population in Ukraine to gather insights into internal displacement and mobility flows, and to assess local needs.

IDP estimates from the third round of a rapid representative assessment of the general population in Ukraine to gather insights into internal displacement and mobility flows, and to assess local needs.

IDP estimates from the second round of a rapid representative assessment of the general population in Ukraine to gather insights into internal displacement and mobility flows, and to assess local needs.