Nepal earthquake hazard Index

Data used for the statistical model to predict the number of fatalities following an earthquake as in Nepal. The model predicting death counts, developed using zero-inflated negative binomial regression to account for excess zeros and over-dispersion, then converted into indices that measure relative priority in terms of predicted death counts, predicted death rate (predicted death count divided by total population), and predicted death density (predicted death count divided by area).

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Data and Resources


Source Multiple sources
Date of Dataset Apr 25, 2015
Expected Update Frequency Never

The data for this study were obtained from the Humanitarian Data Exchange, including MMI (a measure of the ground shaking resulting from an earthquake), population data and house construction data, most of which were available only at the district level. Although the model was developed at the district level, the resulting indices are flexible enough to be able to take into account VDC-level gradations in MMI within the district. The model shows that MMI was the strongest predictor of deaths, and roof construction variables were the most important next to MMI.

Caveats / Comments

A paper based on this development has been published by The Statistical Journal of the IAOS and it can be accessed here: