INFORM COVID-19 Risk Index Version 0.1.4

The INFORM Epidemic Risk Index is highly relevant, easily adapted and was developed through an extensive process prior to COVID-19. Therefore it has been used as the starting point for a COVID-19 specific risk index, with the structure and relevant indicators retained as far as possible.

The INFORM Epidemic Risk Index consists of Hazard & Exposure, Vulnerability and Lack of Coping Capacity dimensions. The Person to Person component of Hazard & Exposure is the most relevant to COVID-19 and will be used alone.

Vulnerability and Lack of Coping Capacity consist of hazard dependent (specific to the epidemic hazard) and hazard independent (relevant to all hazards covered by the INFORM Global Risk Index). Both parts will be retained: There are many indicators or broader vulnerability and lack of coping capacity that are directly relevant for COVID-19. COVID-19 will compound existing risks (i.e. will not happen alone), so broader factors of vulnerability and lack of coping capacity are important when considering the humanitarian impact of the pandemic.

The main focus of the adaptation for COVID-19 is improvement of the hazard-dependent parts of the index (i.e. factors specific to COVID-19), but within the existing structure.

The COVID-19 Risk Index (like other INFORM risk indexes) is focused on structural factors. It does not contain rapidly changing information, for example on cases, government restrictions, and changing health system capacity in response to the pandemic. However, INFORM is looking at how dynamic risk information on COVID-19 can be organised and potentially aggregated for use in conjunction with the risk index.

Only risk factors for which there is sufficient evidence are included.