Indonesia - Strength of ENSO signal on rainfall variability

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Change in monthly rainfall in Indonesia region with 1° increase in sea surface temperature of NINO-3.4 region

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Source CRU - University of East Anglia, NCEP - NOAA, WFP
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Date of Dataset Jan 01, 2016
Expected Update Frequency Never
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The occurrence of extreme climate events (flood and drought) causing huge food crop production loss in Indonesia is mostly associated with ENSO events. El Nino years is normally associated with drought years, while La-Nina is often related to wet years which can cause flood hazards. However, the strength of ENSO signal in Indonesia is not homogenous. In order to assess regional differences of ENSO impact on rainfall variability, we can apply regression analysis as the following:

Y = a + b*X,

Where Y is rainfall anomaly, X is sea surface temperature anomaly in NINO3.4 (can be downloaded from ERSST v3b NOAA: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/), a and b is parameters of the model. The value b indicates the strength of the ENSO signal. In this analysis, the b value is set to zero if the b is not significant at 5% level of confidence. The analysis used gridded monthly rainfall data from CRU- University of East Anglia UK since this data has long record started from 1901-2014. The data are downloadable from BADC: http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/home/index.html.

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