Afghanistan - Nexus Risks Index

The Afghanistan Nexus Risk Index (NRI) integrates multi-sectoral, cross-domain data derived from over 30 indicators reflecting critical socio-ecological thresholds. The methodology builds upon the IPBES Nexus Assessment framework and incorporates high-resolution modeling to evaluate systemic risks under intersecting environmental, socio-political, and climatic stressors.

Each indicator is scored through a composite index, combining:

Disaster Risk Intelligence (DRI):

Advanced Earth observation and remote sensing layers

Geospatial hazard exposure modeling

AI-enhanced event-based loss estimations (e.g., floods, droughts, conflict spillover)

Disaster Risk Fragility (DRF):

Socio-economic vulnerability metrics (e.g., food insecurity, health capacity, gender disparity)

State fragility assessments based on governance, institutional capacity, and rule of law

Demographic stress models using spatial disaggregation

Disaster Risk Resilience (DRR):

Infrastructure and service accessibility (e.g., roads, WASH, energy access)

Ecosystem health, natural capital resilience, and land productivity

Localized resilience strategies derived from bottom-up adaptation data

Indicator-Specific Models: Each sector (e.g., agriculture, water, energy, health, climate) has been calibrated using tailored analytical frameworks with corresponding technical vocabulary and domain knowledge. For example:

Climate data integrates ERA5, GISTEMP, and HadCRUT5 anomalies (1850–2024) with monthly and annual composites.

Health vulnerability draws on weighted health system indicators (e.g., facility proximity, service disruption, disease incidence).

Hydrological risk incorporates precipitation quantile anomalies and Nino 3.4 SST indices to assess climatic deviations in drought-prone zones.

Data are normalized, aggregated, and scored using a dynamic weighted index system, adaptable across local, regional, and national scales.

⚠ Data Considerations and Limitations

Data Quality Variance: Data quality and resolution vary across sources. Some indicators rely on interpolated or modeled data where direct observation is unavailable—particularly in conflict-affected or remote regions of Afghanistan.

Missing and Estimated Data: Regions inaccessible due to insecurity or lacking monitoring infrastructure may contain estimated or proxy-derived values. This includes humanitarian needs, infrastructure damage, and local governance indicators.

Temporal Disparities: Some datasets are historical (e.g., temperature since 1850), while others are near-real-time or updated annually. Users should consult indicator metadata for update frequency and source details.

Derived and Composite Metrics: Several indicators are aggregates of multiple sub-indicators or derived through composite modeling, which may introduce bias or error propagation depending on methodological assumptions.

Context-Specific Interpretation: The Nexus Risk Index is tailored for the Afghanistan context but can be adapted elsewhere. However, interpretations must account for the country-specific political economy, cultural dynamics, and environmental thresholds.

Use Restrictions: The dataset is designed for research, humanitarian coordination, and resilience planning. It is not suitable for commercial or high-stakes operational decision-making without independent validation. Users must not use this data for predictive policing, insurance risk calculations, or financial investment analysis without consultation with experts.